Declaring Palestinian statehood

Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad appears more confident than ever before in his plan to declare Palestinian statehood. Today, in an exclusive interview with Akiva Eldar of Ha'aretz, PM Fayyad stated that "the time for this baby [a Palestinan state] to be born will come and we estimate it will come around 2011."

Fayyad's confident rhetoric must be in part motivated by growing support for his proposal in the international community. A joint statement by the Middle East Quartet (U.S., Russia, E.U., and the UN) on Mar. 19 in Moscow highlighted Fayyad's efforts and unequivocally supported his plan. "The Quartet continues to support the Palestinian Authority’s plan of August 2009 for building the Palestinian state within 24 months as a demonstration of Palestinians’ serious commitment to an independent state that provides good governance, opportunity, justice, and security for the Palestinian people from the first day that it is established and is a responsible neighbor to all states in the region," the Quartet members stated.

Support from the Quartet and the greater international community along with Israel's worsening image resulting from its intransigence on settlement construction in East Jerusalem has lent additional credibility to and confidence in Fayyad's reasonable approach. Moreover, the PA has made good on many of the state-building projects originally laid out in the plan. "I envision," Fayyad said "that we will be so mature in terms of positive facts on the ground, and along the way have grown on our Israeli neighbors, we will have begun a process of transformation from a concept, to a possibility, to a reality."

U.S.-Syrian relations on the mend?

Today Senator John Kerry met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Kerry, who co-sponsored the Syria Accountability Act of 2003, which imposed numerous sanctions on the Arab state, appears to have had a change of heart. Increasing U.S. interest in improved relations with Syria is no doubt a byproduct of the region's two major geopolitical challenges. Syria finds itself uniquely positioned to play an important role in the Arab-Israeli peace process and the Iranian nuclear issue. During his visit, Senator Kerry remarked that the U.S. and Syria possess “a mutual interest in having a very frank exchange on any differences that may exist, but also on the many, many agreements that we have about the possibilities of peace in this region.”

Obama turns up heat on Iran

For the second time this week President Barack Obama has heightened his rhetoric on Iran sanctions. On the heels of his meetings with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, President Obama expressed his desire to implement a UN sanctions regime against Iran in the very near future ("within weeks"). The U.S. has yet to completely marshal unanimous support for sanctions among key players in the international community. Key members of the UN Security Council (Russia and China) and the up-and-coming group of developing countries known as the BRIC group (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) have been somewhat reluctant to sign on to Obama's plan for sanctions. Support from these countries, however, will ultimately be necessary for sanctions to be even remotely successful. Each of the above states has the capacity to undermine dramatic unilateral actions by the Americans. As such, representatives from the U.S. are currently engaged in spirited discussions with their international counterparts.

Today, in an interview on the CBS "Early Show" President Obama re-iterated his comments from earlier in the week. The president expressed fear that Iran was heading in the direction of the so-called "Japan Option," which refers to a state of nuclear latency in which all of the technology to develop a bomb is known and quickly actionable, yet no bombs are in a state of readiness. "If they've got nuclear weapons-building capacity -- and they are flouting international resolutions, that creates huge destabilizing effects in the region and will trigger an arms race in the Middle East that is bad for U.S. national security but is also bad for the entire world," President Obama said. Sanctions, he advocated, are now the best available option for dealing with such a potentiality given Iran's reluctance to accept America's "outstretched hand" of engagement.

When questioned on the efficacy of sanctions, President Obama largely skirted the issue, stating "the idea here is just to keep on turning up the pressure. The regime has become more isolated since I came into office." The proposed "crippling" sanctions regime does not, in this author's opinion, do enough to distinguish between the Iranian government and the Iranian people. The people, who already endure the constraining forces of sanctions on their economy are increasingly likely to bear the bulk of the cost from President Obama's "turning up the pressure." Moreover, sanctions will embolden the government and provide a diversion from the egregious violations of human and civil rights they are inflicting. President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei will surely be able to spin the sanctions into support for their draconian regime. The Obama administration should, therefore, reconsider the type of sanctions regime it is trying to impose if it is indeed fixed on the idea of sanctions in practice. Representative Keith Ellison (D-MN) has proposed legislation in the House, which would make many useful modifications to the sanctions regime such that they do not disproportionately affect the Iranian populace. The bill, known as the "Stand with the Iranian People Act"(SWIPA), has unsurprisingly met with little support.

Tensions escalate as Israel executes air strike on Gaza

The Ma'an News Agency reported that Israeli aircraft launched several attacks in the Khan Younis and Gaza City areas of Gaza early this morning. Damage to several structures and multiple injuries to children occurred during the attacks. According to an Israeli military spokesperson, the air strikes had targeted two weapons-manufacturing plants and two arms caches controlled by Hamas. Despite this, the Daloul cheese and dairy factory was among the damaged structures. Moreover, three children were injured as a result of flying debris from the factory. The strike, once again, reveals the consequences and difficulties posed by military attacks on high-density civilian areas.

The air attacks, said the Israeli military spokesperson, were authorized in response to a Qasam rocket fired from Gaza yesterday that landed in the Israeli coastal area of Ashkelon. This back and forth is only the most recent indicator of the increasingly perilous situation developing between Israel and Gaza. Only a week ago two Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers were killed along the Gaza-Israel border when they attempted to pursue several militants, who were purportedly laying explosives along the frontier. Rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza have also been on the rise. 20 such incidents were reported during the month of March. Including today's attacks, Israeli forces have killed 10 Palestinians and injured at least 50 others in the Gaza strip since the beginning of the year.

Al-Jazeera English ran the following coverage (0:00-1:20) of today's air strike:

Iraq Election 2010 - Update

The results of this month's election in Iraq continue to pose many complex questions. Despite claims of fraud from most of the candidates, there is little evidence to support such a conclusion. The margin which separates the top two parties is enough to indicate a reasonably fair and successful election (Iyad Allawi's secular al-Iraqiyya party received 91 parliamentary seats and Nouri al-Maliki's primarily Shiite Da'wa party received 89). In fact, the UN Security Council is calling on all of the Iraqi parties to "to respect the certified election results and the choices of the Iraqi people." A variety of international and independent observers, who were present for the election have made arguments that would support the UN's confidence in the election results.

International certification of the results and Iraq's election commission's (IEC) confidence in fraud-checking measures used during the election have not stopped the important players from trying to scuttle the outcome. Allawi, al-Maliki, the Sadrists and others have all at some stage made accusations of fraud or gross mismanagement of the electoral process. Al-Maliki's calls for a manual recount have been rejected by the IEC as "unnecessary." Ahmed Chalabi, one-time Bush golden boy, who gained a seat in parliament is still trying his best to skew the results and increase his standing. He oversees the Accountability and Justice Commission (AJC), which almost prevented the election from occurring at all (and certainly altered the final vote tallies) due to its indiscriminate "de-baathification" program. Chalabi and his cohort Faisal al-Lami are now, through the AJC, attempting to disqualify 52 of the candidates who won seats on the basis of former ties to the Baath party. Many of the candidates, whose names the AJC refuses to disclose are likely members of Allawi's al-Iraqiyya party. If successful, Chalabi and al-Lami's tactic stands to give al-Maliki's party the lead and thus change the face of Iraq's government.

As things currently stand, Allawi has the first opportunity to form a coalition government, which in all likelihood would entail a partnership with the Iraqi National Alliance (Sadrists and Chalabi) and the Kurds. The government in such a form would represent a more diverse spectrum of Iraqis given the inclusion of Sunnis and secular Shiites (al-Iraqiyya), hard-line Shiites (Sadrists), and the Kurds of northern Iraq. If the AJC manages to thwart such a coalition from forming and al-Maliki is allowed to piece together a majority it is much less likely to include so many of Iraq's ethnic and religious sects due to the Da'wa party's Shiite leanings.

Interestingly, the Sadrists are making a push to be the decisive player in the post election melee. The group's leader, Moqtada al-Sadr (who currently is residing in Iran), announced through a representative in Baghdad that a nation-wide referendum should be held to select the prime minister. Sadr's group have already printed ballots, which include five options for the PM spot: Allawi, al-Maliki, Ibrahim al-Jaafari (a former PM), Adel Abdul Mahdi (current vice president), and Muhammad Jaffar al-Sadr (a relative of Sadr). While the referendum is being marketed as inclusive to all Iraqis it is unclear whether anyone beyond Sadr's supporters will actually participate. The results of the referendum will most likely be used as a bargaining chip or as a mandate from Sadr's supporters on the optimal ally in a coalition government.

On what the election after-effects mean for women and for the U.S. I defer to two very knowledgeable and qualified George Washington University professors--Marc Lynch (some may know him as Abu Aardvark) and Nesreen Barwari.

Lynch at The National & Barwari at Foreign Policy

Saudi woman sparks controversy with poetry on international stage

Hessa Hilal's poetry is making waves far beyond the Arabian Gulf. The Saudi has recently been featured on MSNBC, NPR's Morning Edition, and ABC News for her criticism of extremists and right-wing Muslim clerics through her poetry. Hilal, 43, is a finalist on the popular Arabic TV show "Shaer al-Million" (Million Dollar Poet), where she has engendered both scathing disapproval and wild support from viewers. The show, which is modelled after "American Idol" relies on viewers to vote via text-message to select a winner. Hillal's verses have been nothing short of provocative, accusing clerics "of sitting in positions of power" inspiring "fear" with their fatwas and "preying like a wolf" on those who promote peace and equality.

Here is a video that ABC News put together on Hilal.

U.S. Navy aircraft crashes in Arabian Gulf

The U.S. Navy has reported that an E-2C Hawkeye aircraft (as seen at left) crashed into the North Arabian Sea while returning from an Operation Enduring Freedom support mission. Three of the four crew members have been recovered while search and rescue efforts for the fourth continue. The accident is under investigation, but the U.S. Navy is simply referring to it as "a mishap."

Jordan takes first steps toward a civilian nuclear program

The official Petra news agency announced today that Jordan has signed a landmark deal with a South Korean consortium to construct the Hashemite Kingdom's first nuclear research reactor. The $130 million agreement will establish the 5-megawatt reactor at the Jordan University for Science and Technology near Irbid by 2014. The chairman of Jordan's Atomic Energy Commission explained that the reactor will function as a training facility for Jordanian nuclear scientists and technicians, who will ultimately be responsible for developing the country's civilian nuclear program.

Stradling the fence in Syria

David W. Lesch, an experienced and savvy commentator on Syria, has just posted an insightful blog piece on Syria's unique foreign policy strategy at Foreign Policy's Middle East Channel. Lesch astutely points out that Bashar al-Asad is growing into his father's shoes (if at times rather clumsily) in regards to formulating a clever foreign policy that enhances Syria's importance in the region. By straddling the fence Syria has made inroads with the U.S. and Iran simultaneously, and has managed to maintain its credibility as a proponent of Arab nationalism. Lesch warns, however, that Bashar must tread carefully with such a policy. Follow the link to view the full article.

WRMEA staff member's letter featured in the IHT

The Mar. 22 edition of the International Herald Tribune (the Global Edition of the New York Times) featured a letter from WRMEA staff member, Andrew Blakely, on the U.S. role in the peace process. Excuse our shameless self-promotion, but the letter lends some reason to an often irrational and partisan debate.

Arab states among Africa's worst in terms of illicit capital outflows

On Mar. 26 Global Financial Integrity (GFI), a Washington, DC-based public policy think tank, released a new report on illicit financial flows in Africa. The report, which examines the period from 1970 to 2008, shows that Africa lost $854 billion in illicit financial outflows. According to GFI, that amount "is far in excess of the official development assistance going into African countries." Stemming the flood of illicit capital outflows, which are defined as the proceeds from bribery, tax evasion, theft, drugs, and human trafficking, could significantly improve prospects for development and poverty reduction. Arab states in North Africa performed especially poorly. Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco all exceeded $25 billion in illicit financial outflows. Nigeria was the only other country to exceed those levels.

House arrest ends for Pakistani nuclear scientist

Famed Pakistani nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, completed a five-year house arrest term today. Khan, who directed Pakistan's nuclear weaponization program, served the five-year sentence for his alleged role in divulging nuclear secrets to North Korea, Libya, and Iran. Being the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, Khan enjoys considerable popular support, but the government remains skeptical of his allegiances. While Khan is no longer officially under house arrest his movement and freedom of speech are still restricted. Khan is not permitted to discuss nuclear proliferation issues with the media and is required to clear all of his movements with Pakistani officials.

This week in Washington

Middle East events for the week of 3/29 - 4/2 in Washington DC:

Monday 3/29 -

Tuesday 3/30 -

• "U.S. Military Assistance to Lebanon: A Discussion of the Pros and Cons" w/ Aram Nerguizian & David Schenker @ MEI; Noon-1:30PM
  

Wednesday 3/31 -

• "Tunisia: What Lies Ahead?" w/ Jerry Sorkin @ MEI; Noon-1PM
• "Dining with al-Qaeda - a book event with Hugh Pope" w/ Amjad Atallah, Hugh Pope, & Susan Glasser @ New America Foundation; 3-4PM
• "A Conversation with His Royal Highness Prince Zeid Ra'ad Zeid Al-Hussein" w/ HRH Zeid Ra'ad Zeid Al-Hussein @ Ronald Reagan Building (Horizon Ballroom); 9-11AM
• "U.S. and Iran: After the End of Engagement, What Next?" w/ Flynt Leverett & Shireen Hunter @ Georgetown University Intercultural Center; 12:30 PM
• "Al-Rujulah Film Series: Akhir Film (Making Of)" @ Georgetown University Intercultural Center; 8PM
  

Thursday 4/1 -

• "Turkey's European Aspirations and it's Cyprus Dilemma" w/ Hugh Pope & Omer Taspinar @ Brookings Institution; 10AM-Noon
  

Friday 4/2 -

• "Turkey and the Middle East: Ambitions and Constraints" w/ Hugh Pope @ MEI; 10-11AM
• "Dining with al-Qaeda: Three Decades Exploring the Many Worlds of the Middle East" w/ Hugh Pope @ MEI; 11AM-Noon
  

No negotiations without settlement freeze, says Arab League

At the conclusion of a two-day summit in Sirte, Libya Arab leaders made clear their position on ongoing Israeli housing construction in Arab East Jerusalem. The resumption of peace negotiations, they said, was entirely conditional upon a cessation of all controversial building in the historic city. Despite the unified condemnation of Israel's settlement policy, the members of the Arab League demonstrated a lack of cohesion on other issues discussed during the summit. Syria and Libya have both indicated disdain for existing strategies proposed for negotiations. Ultimately there was no consensus on "proximity talks" or the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and votes have consequently been deferred until the next summit scheduled for October. The 22 Arab countries did, however, agree to assemble a $500 million aid package intended to increase the Palestinian presence in East Jerusalem.

Much needed clothes and shoes to reach Gazans

According to the Israeli English language daily, Ha'aretz, Israel has decided to permit shipments of clothing and shoes into the beleaguered Gaza strip. Palestinian officials explained that the first shipments were due to arrive on Thursday. This will be the first time that such necessities have enter Gaza since the blockade began three years ago. The list of items prohibited from entering Gaza, however, remains extensive. It is unclear whether the slight loosening in the blockade is the result of recent pressure from the United States.

A blog is born

Welcome to the WRMEA Blog. It is our hope, here at the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, that this blog will supplement the rich news and analysis available in our print magazine. Try as we might we aren't always able to keep apace with the amount and rapidity of developments in the Middle East. In an effort to address some of the limitations of print media we bring you non-partisan commentary and timely news coverage on this complex, vital, and vibrant region. So join us as we make sense of the Middle East.